Every entrepreneur—no matter their experience or natural gifting—faces uncertainty with starting a new business.
Every entrepreneur's secret battle.
Every entrepreneur deals with the dread of the unknown. Likely you look around and see what appears to be a world of successful, confident entrepreneurs. Internally, you probably think these people have something that I don't. Well, I'd like to say that every entrepreneur—no matter their experience or natural gifting—faces uncertainty with starting a new business. The question is what we do with uncertainty. I'm going to give you a brief overview of some helpful mindsets to have as you deal with the inevitable uncertainty of starting a new business.
If you really want to go deep into understanding uncertainty and how to think about it, then I highly recommend you read Nassim Taleb's book "Antifragile." His writing and research have been one of the most influential factors in shaping how I think about and approach uncertainty in everything I do.
Escaping uncertainty is an illusion. Many people think that if they get a job with a big established company, get benefits and a sizable salary; they have arrived at financial security. But that's not true. We can look around and see story after story of someone that spent most of their career in one job only to lose that job or to have the company go under and, suddenly, they're out trying to figure out how to make a living again. We've also seen in recent history how major factors can dramatically upset what we assume is normal. Think of 9/11, the financial crash of 2008, or the COVID-19 pandemic. Each of those events dramatically changed our lives and our work. Each of these major instances shows us that everything can change in a moment.
So how to think about certainty? What we need to be thinking about is not how do we create certainty but rather how do we adapt and react in an inescapably uncertain environment. So let's talk about entrepreneurship. Here's massive uncertainty. Will you be able to get the next client? Will you be able to keep the cash flow up? Will you be able to create the next product? All of these questions are very real, representing a threat that could significantly harm—if not ruin—your business. Isn't there less uncertainty in the corporate world? Yes and no. In startups, there is more consistent uncertainty, but it's at a lower threat level. However, if you were to go into the corporate world and have a career for 20 years, you would experience uncertainty less often, but the threat it represents would be much more significant.
Nassim Taleb talks about shocks to the system in "Antifragile." What he argues is that more consistent exposure to lower levels of uncertainty—shocks to the system—better prepares you to withstand larger shocks to the system. If you spend most of your career in an environment where you do not feel like you are actually facing uncertainty and something unexpected happens, the chances are you will not be well equipped to adapt.
In my own life, I've spent my entire career working for myself. I've practiced adapting and dealing with uncertainty and finding opportunities in changing environments, so I'm very confident that if another 2008 happened or another pandemic, I'd be able to find a path forward for myself and my business.
Although many people would look at my life and my business and say that they see lots of uncertainty, the reality is that I have far more certainty and security in my career than if I worked in a corporate environment. I've been exposed to lots and lots of low-level uncertainty for my entire career. I've practiced adapting to shock to the system, but my counterparts in the corporate world, on the other hand, could be fired, and they'd have to find someone else to hire them. They have to hope their specific skill set, experience, and education qualify them for the pay rate they need in a job they want in their city.
As you build your business, you'll have to become comfortable being uncomfortable in the midst of uncertainty, but this is a skill that you're developing, and the better you are at handling and adapting to uncertain environments, the more real security you're going to build in your life and in your business. So even though there's no trick to making uncertainty go away, the truth is the journey that you're about to go on is going to bring more security to your life than you have ever known.
- John Walt
Every entrepreneur—no matter their experience or natural gifting—faces uncertainty with starting a new business.
Every entrepreneur's secret battle.
Every entrepreneur deals with the dread of the unknown. Likely you look around and see what appears to be a world of successful, confident entrepreneurs. Internally, you probably think these people have something that I don't. Well, I'd like to say that every entrepreneur—no matter their experience or natural gifting—faces uncertainty with starting a new business. The question is what we do with uncertainty. I'm going to give you a brief overview of some helpful mindsets to have as you deal with the inevitable uncertainty of starting a new business.
If you really want to go deep into understanding uncertainty and how to think about it, then I highly recommend you read Nassim Taleb's book "Antifragile." His writing and research have been one of the most influential factors in shaping how I think about and approach uncertainty in everything I do.
Escaping uncertainty is an illusion. Many people think that if they get a job with a big established company, get benefits and a sizable salary; they have arrived at financial security. But that's not true. We can look around and see story after story of someone that spent most of their career in one job only to lose that job or to have the company go under and, suddenly, they're out trying to figure out how to make a living again. We've also seen in recent history how major factors can dramatically upset what we assume is normal. Think of 9/11, the financial crash of 2008, or the COVID-19 pandemic. Each of those events dramatically changed our lives and our work. Each of these major instances shows us that everything can change in a moment.
So how to think about certainty? What we need to be thinking about is not how do we create certainty but rather how do we adapt and react in an inescapably uncertain environment. So let's talk about entrepreneurship. Here's massive uncertainty. Will you be able to get the next client? Will you be able to keep the cash flow up? Will you be able to create the next product? All of these questions are very real, representing a threat that could significantly harm—if not ruin—your business. Isn't there less uncertainty in the corporate world? Yes and no. In startups, there is more consistent uncertainty, but it's at a lower threat level. However, if you were to go into the corporate world and have a career for 20 years, you would experience uncertainty less often, but the threat it represents would be much more significant.
Nassim Taleb talks about shocks to the system in "Antifragile." What he argues is that more consistent exposure to lower levels of uncertainty—shocks to the system—better prepares you to withstand larger shocks to the system. If you spend most of your career in an environment where you do not feel like you are actually facing uncertainty and something unexpected happens, the chances are you will not be well equipped to adapt.
In my own life, I've spent my entire career working for myself. I've practiced adapting and dealing with uncertainty and finding opportunities in changing environments, so I'm very confident that if another 2008 happened or another pandemic, I'd be able to find a path forward for myself and my business.
Although many people would look at my life and my business and say that they see lots of uncertainty, the reality is that I have far more certainty and security in my career than if I worked in a corporate environment. I've been exposed to lots and lots of low-level uncertainty for my entire career. I've practiced adapting to shock to the system, but my counterparts in the corporate world, on the other hand, could be fired, and they'd have to find someone else to hire them. They have to hope their specific skill set, experience, and education qualify them for the pay rate they need in a job they want in their city.
As you build your business, you'll have to become comfortable being uncomfortable in the midst of uncertainty, but this is a skill that you're developing, and the better you are at handling and adapting to uncertain environments, the more real security you're going to build in your life and in your business. So even though there's no trick to making uncertainty go away, the truth is the journey that you're about to go on is going to bring more security to your life than you have ever known.
- John Walt
StacDek helps companies design strategies that drive long-term growth.
